W: F. Hernandez (13-11)
L: D. Haren (13-8)
W: J. Williams (2-0)
L: A. Vasquez (1-1)
On July 25, 2010 the Angels traded Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a PTBNL for Dan Haren. The PTBNL turned out to be Tyler Skaggs, Skaggs was the Halos' supplemental first-round selection (40th overall) in 2009. At first glance this trade looks like a steal for the Angels, they give up 3 prospects, and a SP that was never really that good. But hey, let’s look at it, in-depth.
Joe Saunders- Signed thru 2011, 1 yr/$5.5M Arb-eligible and a Free Agent in2013.
9-11 3.82 ERA 172 innings 91 K’s 59 BB’s 1.326 WHIP 8.8 H/9 1.2 HR/9 3.1 BB/9 4.8K/9 1.8 WAR
Patrick Corbin- #9 prospect in Diamondbacks Organization (According to Baseball America)
9-7 3.91 ERA 156.1 innings 139 K’s 38 BB’s 1.286 WHIP 9.4 H/9 .7 HR/9 2.2 BB/9 8.0 K/9
Tyler Skaggs-#82 prospect (according to Baseball America)
9-6 2.86 ERA 154.1 innings 191 K’s 46 BB’s 1.069 WHIP 6.9 H/9 .6 HR/9 2.7 BB/9 11.1 K/9
Rafael Rodriguez- Pre Arb-Eligible Free Agent in 2016
03 9.88 ERA 4 SV 37.1 innings 18 K’s 21 BB’s 2.170 WHIP 14.5 H/9 1.9 HR/9 5.1 BB/9 4.3 K/9
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Dan Haren- Under contract for 2011 and 2012 at $12.75MM per season with a club option for 2013 of $15.5MM ($3.5MM buyout).
13-7 3.19 ERA 194.2 innings 159 K’s 27 BB’s 1.022 WHIP 8 H/9 .7 HR/9 1.2 BB/9 7.4 K/9 3.5 WAR
I took the liberty to bold (and italicize) the better stat of Haren vs. Saunders . . . It wasn’t too hard.
Now, how does Saunders hold up against the Angels’ 5th starter in Piniero (not including Kazmir, Williams or Richards because lack of innings pitched and won’t include Chatwood because I believe he’s our 4th starter). Well, out of the stats listed above, Saunders beats out Piniero 7-3.
But what we lost in Saunders as our 5th starter we gained a lot more from our #2 starter. Though I do miss having Skaggs. . .
Weaver, Santana, Kazmir, Piniero, Saunders
A year later I see this trade as Haren for Corbin and Skaggs, the Angels wanted to win now, so they traded their two top pitching prospects in order to do so. The Angels might be able to extend Haren (if they pick up his option in 2013) to a below-market extension (hometown discount). So they might be able to have Weaver AND Haren for more another 5+ years.
So after first glance it looks like a steal, after an id-depth look? I think it’s not exactly a steal but it’s very close to it (especially if he signs an extension). This deal would only look bad if we hadn’t extended Weaver.
January 21, 2011: The Angels acquired Vernon Wells of the Blue Jays, for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. Say what you want about this trade, but I’m only going to say two things:
1) This was a knee-jerk reaction to losing out on Carl Crawford.
2) This was a great trade for the Blue Jays
The Jays dumped Wells and his albatross of a contract (4 years 86MM) for a LF and a 1B/C/DH. Then they flipped Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco. This freed up a ton of money for them to extend Jose Bautista long-term. Now enough about the Blue Jays… what about the Angels?
The Angels were looking for a LF upgrade and Carl Crawford seemed to be the guy they were looking at to replace Juan Rivera. They ultimately got out-bidded by the Red sox for the LF. I’m not too sure what was going on through Reagins’ mind but it seemed that he found a replacement as he was talking to Jim Hendry. A supposed deal was Fukudome, Gorzelanny, and Alfosnso Soriano for Scott Kazmir, Mike Napoli, and Juan Rivera. Talks were going on, until the cubs traded Gorzelanny to the Nationals. But talks continued as another deal would’ve been: Soriano and John Grabow to the Angels for Mike Napoli, Juan Rivera, and a minor league reliever. Sources say they were close to a deal and everybody was going to sign off on it, but the GM from Toronto Alex Anthopoulos stepped in and offered Wells. The Angels chose Wells, even though he was more expensive than Soriano, because they knew he was younger, had a better glove and was more of a complete player than Soriano. So that’s what happened, now let’s analyze this trade.
The Angels took on a huge contract, and Wells’ numbers have been heavily influenced by hitting in the AL East bandboxes although he only had 2 seasons in which he hit over 30 homeruns. The Halos gave away two players who were valued higher than what they were acquired for. They could have easily traded Mike Napoli to a team such as the Phillies, Mets, Pirates, Brewers or Astros for a reliever or two. I believe the Angels could’ve sent Rivera and Napoli to the Phillies for Antonio Bastardo, Vance Worley, and a B prospect. The Phillies were looking for an outfielder that was right-handed, and they could’ve used Napoli as an upgrade over Ruiz. Basically saying that Napoli’s value was pretty high after a strong year offensively and could net a starter and a reliever (or 2 relievers) and Rivera could net just a prospect, since he would be the new 4th outfielder/platoon with Brown. Or they could’ve kept Napoli and just traded away Rivera, leaving the lineup to look something like this:
1) Aybar-SS
2) Kendrick-2B
3) Hunter-RF
4) Trumbo-1B
5) Napoli-DH
6) Callaspo-3B
7) Podsednik-LF
8) Mathis-C (by putting Mathis in this lineup, I’m not supporting that he should be in the lineup)
9) Bourjos-CF
You might have noticed a player or two not on the current roster on that lineup. Those players would be Bobby Abreu and Scott Podsenik. Bobby Abreu would ultimately be the 4th outfielder, limiting his plate appearances so that his 9MM option doesn’t vest. We would sign Podsednik to a 1 year deal so that when his one year is up we can plug Mike Trout into that lineup and have him play LF. Personally, that’s what I wanted during our offseason. But now we have a logjam with Trout, Abreu, and Wells (not to mention Hunter is a FA in 2012). Here are some stats from Napoli, Rivera, and Wells for this year:
Vernon Wells: .208/.241/.373 17 HR, 45 RBI’s, 8 doubles, 15 walks, 65 strikeouts. WAR: -.04
dWAR: -0.4 ~23MM
Mike Napoli- .289/.390/.592 18 HR, 46 RBI’s, 15 doubles, 36 walks, 50 strikeouts. WAR: 3.1
dWAR: 0.5 ~5.8MM
Juan Rivera: .264/.322/.393 8 HR, 41 RBI’s, 17 doubles, 28 walks, 53 strikeouts. WAR: -0.2
dWAR: -0.7 ~5.2MM
The numbers speak for themselves, so the final word is:
What was Tony Reagins thinking when he traded for Vernon Wells?
It’s Spring time in 2012, the sun is shining, and you can smell the grass on the diamond. It’s spring training! Now, for the Angels there is a lot to look at during spring training, there is Mike Trout, Garret Richards, and Brandon Wood Kendrys Morales. After two seasons of out of baseball, Morales looks to make the team out of spring training, yet there are obstacles.
· Obstacle One: Mark Trumbo has emerged as a top hitter on the Angels and has taken over 1B.
· Obstacle Two: the outfield is full, with Mike Trout in left, Bourjos in center, and Hunter in RF with Vernon Wells at DH (assuming Abreu is traded)
· Obstacle Three: Big time prospect C.J Cron is starting to appear in Vernon Wells rear-view mirror
· Obstacle Four: After leg and ankle injuries Morales would be lucky to be able to play 1B (OF is out of the question. And so is 3B . . . you know who you are)
So where does that leave us? Morales can play part-time at DH/1B, BUT having not played for two full seasons, the chance that Morales comes out of the Spring Training gates with a spot on the 25-man roster is highly unlikely (and repeating his 2009 season is also unlikely). Leaving him to play in AAA/AA; the reason why I mention AA is because the pitching in AAA isn’t really over powering. Most top pitching prospects skip AAA to go to the majors; so most of the talent is in AA. Also, being in AAA the league is called PCL and it is widely known as a hitters’ league with extreme hitters’ parks, so fans would be screaming out to the front office if Morales has 10 homers in the first three weeks.
So we have two options: let him split time with Vernon and Trumbo at 1B/DH or trade him.
Both options are reasonable but personally I’d rather trade Morales. Why? Because we could get the most out of him that way. Here are some teams that might go after Morales:
· A’s-Need a power hitting 1B/DH
· Indians-Need a power hitting 1B/DH. They can move LaPorta to LF/RF
· Twins-with Morneau injured most of the time, he could play 1B when he is injured, and DH when he’s healthy
· Blue Jays-Need a 1B. they could go after Prince, but Morales would be a lot cheaper
· Orioles-Same with Blue Jays
· Dodgers-Need a cheap 1B
· Rockies-Need a 1B-Helton and Giambi are getting too old
· Brewers/Cardinals-cheap alternative to Pujols/Fielder. Also Morales>Gamel
· Pirates/Cubs- Depends what they see in their organization. Colvin could play 1B for Cubs. Though I don’t see them giving up prospects in a rebuilding stage.
· Nationals-Cheap alternative to Fielder/Pujols. Morales>Noris>LaRoche
There are 12 teams there, and depending on his recovery it could go down to 5 teams. His trade value would increase heavily if he proves he can play 1B and show power in the minors. What kind of return could we get from him? He’s a free agent in 2014, he is arbitration-eligible for the second time in 2012, and Scott Boras is his agent. So any team that trades for him in the offseason would have him for 2 seasons. Now, our best bet would be to trade him during the season because then he would give us a bigger return after playing in the minors for 2-4 weeks.
So, what kind of return would he get? He could get 3 B-type prospects or he could command major league pieces. I’m not really sure how he will do and I’m not too fond of those teams listed above farm systems. But I believe Morales could command 2 RP’s and an INF prospect or 1 major league ready SP, a RP, and a B prospect.
Now, is it likely that he regains his 2009 form and goes on to hit 30 HR’s for another team? Yes, it’s possible, but highly unlikely. The worst thing the Angels could do, is non-tender him a contract, which I doubt they will do. Another thing they could possibly do is eat 8-10MM of Hunter’s contract and trade him, put Trumbo in RF, and Morales at 1B. Again, all of these outcomes aren’t possible until we find out the outcome of Morales’ recovery. Or they could sign Fielder, move Trumbo to RF (above scenario with Hunter) and rotate Vernon, and Trumbo with RF/DH; rotate Fielder, Morales, and Trumbo at 1B; rotate Fielder and Morales at DH. The last scenario, with the Angels signing Fielder, would almost guarantee Morales being traded.
What would you do? Keep Morales and play him part-time? Or trade him?
